INVESTMENT MANIFESTO 2024
There hasn’t been a true economic fallout since the recession in ’08. “Emergency” federal spending is unsustainable. ZIRP interest rates are unsustainable. The world now has optionality outside of US Debt to place their money. Inflation has a high probability of staying sticky. Investment managers need to place money to earn fees, so they overpay for stabilized deals. Betting on BETA is a dangerous strategy in the coming decades. ​
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Dumke does deals that minimize BETA risk. Below replacement cost deals are safer than high-basis deals. Below-market rents are safer than the market or above-market rents. The FED and federal government can’t sustainably smooth out ALPHA and juice the market. Dumke makes bets that have a higher likelihood of performing and surviving in financially uncertain times. While having a BETA-neutral strategy in real estate is impossible, Dumke’s investment philosophy is closer to BETA-neutral than the money manager looking to collect fees. Low-basis, low-rent deals happen to have the most short-term upside as well.​